Modern Parity in NCAAF - Not A Coincidence

When the 2007 season started with a Michigan defeat in the Big House to Division 1-AA Appalachian State a lot of long-time college gridiron fans had a momentary case of shock. However, with 7 weeks gone by since that monumental game, this season continues to produce upsets like no season of recent memory.

USC 23 - Stanford 24

Texas 21 - Kansas State 41

Oklahoma 24 - Colorado 27

And now, this week...

California 27 - Oregon State 31

LSU 37 - Kentucky 43

These are just the most noticable, but there are many others including Duke ending their record losing streak (but immediately starting a new one) with a win against Northwestern.
What is happening in college football should be no real surprise in hind-sight, but it is fair to say most of us didn't see it coming. Even though schools not considered among the Blue Blood of the NCAA have always had their moments in the sun, the modern trend has been much more sustainable and the elite institutions would be wise to stand up and take notice...if they haven't already.

You'll hear a lot of theories about when this all started, but I tend to believe it was with Marshall Faulk at San Diego State. In 1993 he finished 4th in the Heisman voting after putting together an impressive resumé and he was subsequently drafted 2nd overall by the Indianapolis Colts. His efforts made good players realize they could make a name for themselves at less-traditional football schools, particularly if they put up big numbers.

Some might travel back a couple more years when André Ware (1989 - Houston) and Ty Detmer (1990 - BYU) actually won the Heisman, but their schools were a bit more historically tied to football than San Diego State.

The NFL has also played an important part in these changes. Players are being drafted more frequently from smaller schools as scouting has gone high-tech and talent is judged on many factors not earlier considered. 25 years ago Troy Smith would have been a first-round draft pick. In today's world, the 2006 Heisman winner was almost bypassed completely.

Coaching has also improved dramatically the last few decades. As football went through its evolution, the geniuses of the game were unique creatures that re-invented it and made their peers follow suit as the game got bigger, faster and more complex. Football has become an intricate chess game, yet the number of chess masters continues to rise and they have text books, game tapes and so many other tools at their disposal to chip away at the other team's advantages.

Due to this, the days that a few extra pounds on your front line meant you automatically pushed the other guy around are gone. Every team has a number of great athletes and you do not need to have a complete physical advantage to exploit your opponent's weaknesses. The victory of Appalachian State was a perfect example of this as they gave away a lot of size on the line, but were able to pick apart the Michigan defense at will while their own defense kept the damange of Henne, Hart and Manningham at a minimum.

There could also be a case made that today's young people have less respect for institutions making them oblivious to another school's perceived superiority. This attitude makes them much more likely to believe the coach when he reminds them that their opponent puts on his pants and shoes the same way they do. There is a certain cockiness in today's college athletes that transcends any history the Blue Bloods want to claim for themselves. Many of these athletes could simply care less and actually believe they are the better team and translate that into a victory on the field.

Yahoo! Sport columnist Terry Bowden, son of Florida State coach Bobby Bowden and brother to Clemson's Tommy Bowden addressed this issue in a recent article:

"Back when I played at West Virginia in the 70's we hated to play Penn State. They were ranked in the top five every year and we had lost to them about 25 straight games. I remember my father telling us players that they put their pants on the same way we did and all I could think of was how they had to slit their britches up the backside to get their legs in. We were usually beat before the ball was even kicked off."

While any one of these factors could lead to a few upsets, it is the combination of all that will allow it to be sustainable and I am certain the next few years will see quite a few more surprises on the field

Whether or not this trend is permanent is another matter. NCAA Football's elite already have so much invested in their football prowess and to have to share space with these "upstarts" will certainly eat into their bottom lines. High school players are already starting to expand their horizons as to the types of schools they want to join and being Michigan, Notre Dame or USC is no longer a guarantee you will end up with the best pickings. Teams like Boise State, Cincinatti, Wake Forest and Boston College have become legitimate options to further one's career and (especially at Boston College with a graduation rate for student athletes of more than 90%) education. The Blue Bloods are going to have to consider another approach if they ever wish to re-establish their dominance

Perhaps this will lead to another change in the traditions of the college game. This new equality could force the powers that be to consider again the need for a season-ending play-off and championship game. Surely, with so many schools and the likelihood that few seasons will end with two (and only two) undefeated teams this needs to be put back on the table.